The appointment of a prime minister will not be enough to resolve the current political crisis. The candidate chosen by Macron will immediately have to overcome a vote of no confidence in Parliament that could put the French president in difficulty
THE’National Assembly is currently divided into three almost equal blocs: the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (Nfp), the Macron’s centrist group andfar right of the Rassemblement National.
All sides have made one thing clear: none of them want to form a coalition with the other parties.
But none of these three blocs can reach an absolute majority of 289 seats without the support of at least part of another coalition.
“Macron is in a dilemma and cannot find someone who can gather enough votes to carry the National Assembly forward, unifying the center. That is why he is evaluating several candidates,” he told Euronews Hall Gardnerprofessor emeritus of international politics at the American University of Paris.
But the appointment of the prime minister is only one of the first hurdles in the dangerous process. The future head of government will then have to overcome a vote of no confidence by the 577 deputies.
“Emmanuel Macron has put himself in a position of responsibility, since he said he will find a prime minister who will survive a vote of no confidence. If his prime minister is overthrown, it would be a failure directly attributable to him,” he said. Emmanuel Rivièrepolitical scientist and pollster.
“The best thing Macron could have done would have been to tell the different blocs to resolve the issue among themselves.”
“What is striking is that it is bilateral discussions that the president is having. In any other European democracy it does not work like this. The discussions would have taken place between political groups. It would have made a big difference. But today, I think it’s a little late to try this option for Macron,” Rivière said.
Who are the different candidates so far?
In the last few days several names have been circulating, including that of Bernard Cazeneuveformer socialist prime minister under the president Francois Hollande. However, Cazeneuve said he would like to repeal the controversial Macron’s pension reforma red line for the presidential camp.
Even the right-wing conservative politician Xavier Bertrand is in the running. However, the Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen has already announced that his party will vote against him and will bring down any government led by Bertrand.
Another option: Thierry Beaudeta little-known official and president of the French Economic, Social and Environmental Council.
“On paper it looks like a good technocratbut he does not have the political skills to manage such a divided parliament,” said Prof Gardner.
From Wednesday, the conservative Michael Barnier became the last candidate. Barnier was twice European Commissioner and, between 2016 and 2021, EU chief negotiator for the Brexit.
How much longer can Macron wait?
Already in 2017, during an interview with the television channel France 2, Macron described himself as the one who is ultimately responsible for the entire fourth dimension of time.
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“I will remain the master of the clocks, you (the media) will have to get used to it, I have always done it this way,” he told reporters.
Today it seems that the master of the clock is letting time slip away. Although the head of state can constitutionally take the time necessary to appoint a prime minister, they are getting closer two crucial deadlines.
France must present its proposals to the EU reduction of public spending by September 20, although the deadline may be extended until October.
To comply with EU rules, France should carry out cuts of at least 30 billion euros in 2025.
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In June, the European Commission formally warned France for its budget deficit excessive.
Furthermore, the 2025 budget plan of the country must be submitted to the National Assembly on October 1st.
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